France is fiercely secular and the most visited tourist site in Europe. ISIS was sending the message, “We can strike anywhere we want, any time we want.” France has not done a good job of assimilating Muslims. What does the Paris attack tell us about ISIS’ strategy? Here are my thoughts. I’d like to have your comments.
Category Archives: International Relations
Lessons from Tito’s Yugoslavia
There are lessons from the breakup of Yugoslavia after Tito’s death that help explain the chaos in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Tito’s dictatorship was the glue holding the system together. The current discussion is about Islamic terrorism and attempted genocide, but in the breakup after Yugoslavia, Orthodox Christian Serbs attempted genocide against Bosnian Muslims. No one really knows how many were murdered, but in Srebnica alone there are graves holding the bodies of at least 7,800 Bosnian Muslims. Without Sadam holding the system together in Iraq, there was ongoing civil war and the breakup of an artificial nation. The same thing happened with the overthrow of Gaddafi in Libya. The situation with the Assad regime in Syria is still unfolding. These are all nations that were never able to establish a sense of national identity.
Is Putin Overextending?
Russia’s supply lines have to go through the Bosphorus, and the Turks can make that difficult. The Roman Empire learned that there were great dangers in overextending. The frontiers of an empire present significant dangers and choices about what is worth fighting for. Just as Russia overextended itself in Afghanistan, it may be doing the same in Syria. Putin may have gotten himself into more trouble than he imagines.
What Should the U.S. Role Be in the Middle East?
Our interests in the Middle East go back to the earliest days of our republic. There are three essentials that are non-negotiable parts of our foreign policy: sea power, security of Israel, and promotion of democratic values. Given these non-negotiables, a collision of values with Islamist forces is inevitable. This is a summary of part of a presentation I gave this week in a four-part lecture series.
How Strong Is Russia?
Putin’s actions make his objectives clear, but more is involved. Russian ISIS members could cause problems if they return to Russia. But so far, they are still attacking the moderate groups the U.S. has been supporting. A proxy war is developing. Putin still dreams of resurrecting the power of the Soviet Union, but he seems to have forgotten the lessons of the past and the current dilemmas Russia faces
How Does the First Russian Airstrike in Syria Change the Dynamic?
Russia has launched its first airstrike in Syria, not in ISIS-controlled territory, but in Homs in western Syria. It’s very disturbing, but what does it mean? The potential for miscommunication and mistakes is huge. Russia appears to be establishing a military base and possibly a lasting military presence in Syria. What are our options?
What Is Russia Doing in Syria?
New developments are further complicating the situation in Syria. Cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime against ISIS presents serious dangers. Russia is reasserting it’s long-term interests in Syria that go all the way back to Czarist days. The step-up of Russian military assets changes the dynamic. What if they DO destroy ISIS? What then? What’s the endgame? What’s our role?
Unlikely Bedfellows in Syria
Syria, like other Middle East nations, is an artificial state. It’s made up of a multiplicity of ethnic groups with little in common and a Sunni majority ruled by Alawite Shias. This potent mix is vastly complicated by the arrival of Russian tanks, artillery, and troops. The danger of accidental collision should not be ignored. The Turks, who control the water supply, have their impact. So do the Sunni Kurds and the Jordanians, who are extremely anti-Isis. Oddly, Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel are on the same side on this one–not working together, but sharing strategic objectives. What a mess!
What If We Attack Iran?
I wish people who make foreign policy recommendations without having the responsibility of carrying them out would think through the what if’s and weigh the intended and unintended consequences. Someone asked, “What would happen if we attack Iran?” Here’s my 3-minute speculation. (recorded June 14, 2015 in the car on the Ohio Turnpike)
Why We Have to Control the Persian Gulf
As we drove the Ohio Turnpike near Cleveland on Sunday, June 13, I thought about Oliver Hazard Perry’s naval victory in Lake Erie and how that connects to the necessity of controlling the Persian Gulf. Here’s the 3-minute summary Suzanne recorded while I drove.