All posts by suzanne

Iran Is in Transition

Iran is dealing with serious external problems. ISIS despises the Shia. This makes the U.S. and Israel seem less evil to Iran’s leadership. They also have to deal with Turkey and other actors. Iran’s interests are not the same as Russia’s even though they both support Assad. But more of the transition is taking place internally, particularly the demographics and rights of women. There is pent up demand for products and services Iran cannot provide for its citizens. McDonalds in Tehran?

How Big a Victory is Retaking Ramadi?

The Iraqi armed forces have retaken Ramadi. The American strategy of training and use of special forces is paying off. The real question is whether Iraq can hold on to Ramadi. Most of the Sunni Anbar Province is still under Sunni control. Still, this is a significant tactical victory, but whether it is a strategic victory remains to be seen. For the long term, developing a power sharing agreement is a critical need.

The Czar and the Sultan: Escalating Conflict Between Russia and Turkey

Collisions between Russia and Turkey in Syria have longstanding historical precedents. Irdogan’s ambition includes rebuilding the old Ottoman empire. Shooting down the Russian warplane overlooked the fact that Putin cannot be intimidated. The conflict between Russia and Turkey is likely to escalate with further sanctions. This is essentially the Czar and the Sultan with a centuries-old history of conflict. This isn’t going away anytime soon.

Why Paris?

France is fiercely secular and the most visited tourist site in Europe. ISIS was sending the message, “We can strike anywhere we want, any time we want.” France has not done a good job of assimilating Muslims. What does the Paris attack tell us about ISIS’ strategy? Here are my thoughts. I’d like to have your comments.