Category Archives: Middle East

Is Putin Overextending?

Russia’s supply lines have to go through the Bosphorus, and the Turks can make that difficult. The Roman Empire learned that there were great dangers in overextending. The frontiers of an empire present significant dangers and choices about what is worth fighting for. Just as Russia overextended itself in Afghanistan, it may be doing the same in Syria. Putin may have gotten himself into more trouble than he imagines.

What’s Behind the Knife Attacks in Jerusalem?

The increased violence in Jerusalem, usually knife attacks by lone-wolf individual Palestinians, seems to center around rumors about the site holy to Jews as the Temple Mount, yet also revered by Muslims as the Haram al-Sharif. They believe that the Jews are planning to take over the Haram al-Sharif.
This history goes way back. A similar situation arose in 1929 when about 6,000 Jews said they were going to “the wall” to pray. Rumors spread quickly. There were riots and in some cases outright massacres. This led the Jewish community to organize a self-protection group. That was the beginning of the Haganah, which was the forerunner of The Israeli Defense Force (IDF).
This is a longstanding pattern that is likely to continue. Unfortunately, it escalates fear and mistrust and takes attention away from other important issues.

What Is Russia Doing in Syria?

New developments are further complicating the situation in Syria. Cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime against ISIS presents serious dangers. Russia is reasserting it’s long-term interests in Syria that go all the way back to Czarist days. The step-up of Russian military assets changes the dynamic. What if they DO destroy ISIS? What then? What’s the endgame? What’s our role?

Unlikely Bedfellows in Syria


Syria, like other Middle East nations, is an artificial state. It’s made up of a multiplicity of ethnic groups with little in common and a Sunni majority ruled by Alawite Shias. This potent mix is vastly complicated by the arrival of Russian tanks, artillery, and troops. The danger of accidental collision should not be ignored. The Turks, who control the water supply, have their impact. So do the Sunni Kurds and the Jordanians, who are extremely anti-Isis. Oddly, Iran, Hezbollah, and Israel are on the same side on this one–not working together, but sharing strategic objectives. What a mess!

Syrian Refugee Crisis Backstory (4): Civil War and Chaos

Civil war starting in 2011 creates a power vacuum in northern Syria that attracts Saddam’s former key strategists, who begin working with ISIS to regain Sunni power. As factions and nations take sides based on their own competing interests, Syria becomes fragmented. ISIS uses the power vacuum to pursue its goal of establishing a totalitarian Islamic caliphate. Chaos and fighting touches off the Syrian migration to Europe that we see today. Here’s a bit more detail.https://youtu.be/j7azThPm8WY

Syrian Refugee Crisis Backstory (2 ): Rise of the Assad Dynasty

Where did ISIS come from? Syria became ripe for ISIS as the Sunni majority was marginalized by the Assad regime. The Sunni Muslim Brotherhood believed that Islam was the only answer to Syria’s problems and that violence was the only viable tactic. Assad squashed all opposition, but the seeds of ISIS were sown and ready to spring up when his son came to power. Here’s the story in brief.

The Iran Deal

The purpose of my blog is to provide some historical context and/or comparison for what may be in the news recently while staying away from partisan politics. That’s pretty hard to do in the current political climate.

I’ve been reading a lot about the Iran deal. So much to say! Let’s start with the background to Iran’s nuclear buildup.  It appears that the Iranian regime got serious about developing a nuclear program out of fear of the invasion of Iraq–that the U.S. meant what it said about imposing democracy in Iraq as a model for the other authoritarian regimes in the Middle East.

The historical roots go deeper than that. When the U.S. and its allies removed Saddam from Iraq, President Bush encouraged the Shia and Kurds to revolt. They did and Pres. Bush had second thoughts about helping them since it could dismantle Iraq.

So, Saddam could proceed to decimate the Kurds and the Shia. The U.S. and others acted with no fly zones to aid the Kurds successfully, but stood by while Saddam eviscerated the Shia and proceeded to drain their water lands turning it into a desert.

Those Shia who could get out went to the only place offering refuge–Iran. Iran took good care of them. Not surprisingly this encouraged the Sia refugees to be receptive to seeing the U.S. As the Great Satan.

When the U.S. Invades again and decides to hold free elections, it was a given that a Shia coalition would win. Who might they look to for support?

Food for thought.